Bitcoin’s Next Move Hinges on PCE, Nvidia Earnings, and Jackson Hole

Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $78,384.24, poised to be steered by three macro events unfolding this week.

The PCE Fever

■The July PCE reading, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, is expected to show a 3.2% YoY increase, a slight dip from June’s 3.3%.

■A month‑over‑month rise of 0.18% versus the forecast 0.13% could still signal a hotter‑than‑expected print, with CME’s FedWatch pricing in a 38% chance of a 25 basis‑point rate hike.

■Bitcoin, having surged past $80,000, sits in an over‑bought territory with an RSI above 70, hinting at potential pullback or reversal.

Nvidia’s Quarterly Pulse: A Catalyst for Crypto

■NVDA’s Q2 earnings will reveal whether AI‑driven capex debt is a concern or a growth driver.

■A 90‑day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and Nvidia has remained above 0.5 since early 2025, indicating a strong positive relationship.

■A strong earnings beat could ease worries about AI debt and spur risk‑taking across markets.

Jackson Hole: Fed’s Vision Forward

■Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address whether his tone aligns with the Treasury’s plan to boost long‑term bond buybacks.

■Markets see a 60% probability that the Fed will keep rates in the 3.50%‑3.75% range in September.

■Warsh’s preference for letting markets express themselves may influence Bitcoin’s rally trajectory.

Deniz Arel: Investors should monitor how these three macro drivers intersect. A hotter‑than‑expected PCE could reignite fears of a rate hike, amplifying the risk of a correction as Bitcoin remains in over‑bought territory. Conversely, a robust Nvidia earnings report and a supportive Warsh speech might lift risk appetite and push prices higher. Adopting a staggered entry approach with controlled leverage is prudent in this volatile window.