TCMB Q2 2026 Commercial Real Estate Price Index: +29.4% Nominal, -2.2% Real

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released the Q2 2026 Commercial Real Estate Price Index (TGFE) data, presenting a striking picture of both nominal and real performance.

Overall Index Snapshot

■TGFE rose 5.5% from the previous quarter.

■Year‑over‑year nominal growth stood at 29.4%, while the real figure slipped 2.2%.

■The Shop Price Index (Dükkan) increased 5.4% QoQ; YoY nominal rise 29.2%, real decline 2.4%.

■The Office Price Index (Ofis) jumped 6% QoQ; YoY nominal rise 30.6%, real drop 1.3%.

City‑Level Dynamics

■Istanbul: TGFE +5.3% QoQ, +27.8% YoY.

■Ankara: TGFE +6.4% QoQ, +32.5% YoY.

■Izmir: TGFE +5.0% QoQ, +25.7% YoY.

Nominal vs Real Divergence

■The strong nominal gains reflect inflationary pressures and currency effects that inflate headline prices.

■Real declines, especially in the office segment, point to weakening demand and falling rents.

Takeaways for Investors

■The shop segment remains an attractive hedge against inflation for capital‑seeking investors.

■The office sector’s real contraction signals a structural shift; flexible work arrangements and hybrid office demand are reshaping leasing patterns.

■The 5‑6% quarterly gains across major cities underscore persistent regional disparities; local infrastructure and transit projects will likely steer investment decisions.

Murat Yıldız – Real Estate Development and Valuation Specialist: "The TGFE figures released by the CBRT reveal a dual‑track dynamic in Turkey’s commercial property market. The robust nominal rise mirrors short‑term inflationary pressures, whereas the real decline highlights a sectoral demand contraction. In the office space, rent erosion aligns with the broader shift toward remote and hybrid work models, indicating a demand softening. Investors should gravitate toward the shop segment while re‑positioning office assets toward flexible leasing solutions. Regional variations in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir emphasize the importance of local infrastructure and connectivity projects, offering nuanced opportunities for those who monitor city‑specific trends closely."