Trump’s Dollar Cycle Reappears: Is the Dollar Index Poised for a 2026 Surge?

The singular journey of the dollar during the Trump era is now signaling a fresh surge in 2026.

The Trump Dollar Loop: Historical Symmetry

Adam Turnquist’s chart mirrors the post‑election dollar moves of 2016 and 2020 almost identically. This resemblance suggests that investors may see the same dynamics replay across both terms.

■13% decline over 269 trading days.

■Resistance at the 100 level breached for the first time.

■A stage‑three rebound echoing the 2018 pattern.

Fresh Data: Dollar Dynamics 2025‑2026

Turnquist updates the data bi‑monthly, tracking the trend from the January 2025 peak. The latest refresh shows the dollar breaking above the 100 resistance, indicating a new ascent phase.

■269 trading days mark a dip after a 13% pullback.

■Anticipated new low in early 2026.

■Foreign capital flowing into AI and semiconductor sectors fuels dollar demand.

Structural Drivers: Growth Expectations and the AI Flow

Beyond politics, the dollar’s primary engine now lies in growth expectations and technology investment. The United States’ leadership in AI and semiconductor markets provides a structural tailwind for the greenback.

■Foreign investors convert local currency to dollar to fund hyperscalers and semiconductor equities.

■Fed rate policy remains relevant, but real economic performance dominates.

■Inflation still misses the 2% target, yet growth‑centric policies sustain dollar strength.

Reserve Currency Debate: The Dollar’s Future

Turnquist stresses that the dollar’s reserve‑currency status is unlikely to be shaken in the near term. Roughly 90% of FX transactions remain dollar‑centric, with alternatives lacking depth.

■Yuan, Euro, and crypto suffer from liquidity deficits.

■Central banks diversify, but no boycott‑level shift is evident.

■U.S. debt exceeds $39 trillion, representing a long‑term risk factor.

Expert Note (Gökberk Uçar): The dollar’s upcoming rally is driven not merely by political cues but by the United States’ competitive edge in AI and semiconductor sectors. Air freight rates are likely to rise in tandem with these growth expectations, introducing capacity constraints and price volatility into the cargo market. Investors should re‑balance portfolios based on this structural growth trend rather than short‑term dollar swings.