Wheat Futures Rise for Second Day as Black Sea Exports Slow

Wheat futures contracts posted a 1.2% gain for a second consecutive day as Black Sea export volumes fell by 4.5%, drawing sharp focus from market participants.

Market Impact of the Black Sea Export Decline

■Export volume: Down 4.5% over the past ten trading days, tightening supply.

■Price pressure: Spot wheat prices rose from €215/ton to €221/ton.

■Regional factors: Ongoing Ukraine‑Russia conflict and road restrictions have hampered departures from Black Sea ports.

Technical Signals in Futures Markets

■12‑day moving average (MA12): Closing above €218/ton, confirming an upward trend.

■RSI (14‑day): At 68, approaching over‑bought territory.

■Open interest: Net long positions increased by 7.8%.

Global Demand and Stock Dynamics

■China demand: Forecasted +3.2% increase for June.

■U.S. stocks: Official reports show a 10% drawdown, reaching near‑record lows.

■Weather impact: Drought in Australia trims production outlook by 5%.

Strategic Positioning and Risk Assessment

■Short‑term opportunity: Spot volatility offers attractive 0.8‑1.0% range for short‑term option strategies.

■Mid‑term risk: Extended Black Sea transit times could add 2‑3% extra freight costs.

■Long‑term outlook: Global wheat demand is projected to grow 2.5% annually through 2027.

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Defne Aydın, Director of Geopolitical Risk and European Markets