Kocaeli Industry Chamber Warns: Exchange Rate and Energy Costs Threaten Turkish Exports

Kocaeli Industry Chamber President Ayhan Zeytinoğlu announced that the current account deficit, which stood at $4.2 billion in June, has surged to an annualized $38.9 billion, underscoring mounting external pressures.

How Energy Price Volatility Is Skewing the Current Account

Fluctuating energy costs are inflating import bills while making external demand more price‑sensitive. This dual effect erodes Turkey's trade balance and fuels a widening deficit.

Exchange‑Rate Drag on Export Competitiveness

Currency swings are adding cost layers to low‑value‑added export segments. Firms are demanding higher premiums to hedge FX risk, eroding price competitiveness and risking market‑share losses.

Anticipated Policy and Market Reactions

■FX intervention: Central Bank actions to stabilise the lira could curb short‑term volatility.

■Energy subsidies: Temporary government support may soften import cost spikes.

■Export financing: Expanding credit lines and guarantees for SMEs can boost overseas market entry.

■Trade agreements: Accelerating regional free‑trade deals could open new avenues for Turkish goods.

Rüzgar Ersoy – Director, FinTech & Banking: The sharp widening of the current account gap puts intense pressure on both FX markets and corporate liquidity management. Banks should revisit short‑term funding costs to protect NIM margins and leverage digital payment solutions to offer FX‑risk mitigation tools. Moreover, tightening credit‑risk policies to preserve capital adequacy ratios (CAR) will be essential to safeguard systemic stability.