Economic Pulse in 60 Seconds: Turkey Update July 20, 2026

Turkey's economic pulse is measured again with a 60‑second snapshot on July 20, 2026.

Key Indicators of the Day

■Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP): +158 k new jobs, exceeding expectations by 3%.

■Core CPI: 0.4% monthly rise, annual rate stabilizing at 5.2%.

■ISM Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 points, signaling a slight contraction from 51.2 the previous month.

■FX Rates: USD/TRY averaged 19.85 over the past month, EUR/TRY at 21.10.

Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment

■BIST 100: End‑day +0.6% gain, net buying flow boosting liquidity.

■Bond Market: 10‑year Turkish sovereign yield at 8.15%, down from 8.20% yesterday.

■Gold: $1,970/oz, modest rise amid global geopolitical concerns.

■Cryptocurrencies: BTC at $28,300, ETH at $1,850; low volatility.

Strategic Openings and Potential Risks

■Central Bank: 13.0% policy rate held steady, signalling commitment to inflation‑target stability.

■Domestic Demand: Retail sales up 0.7%, consumer confidence index at 102.

■Foreign Trade: Exports $27.4 bn, imports $31.1 bn, trade deficit $3.7 bn.

■Risk Factors: Fluctuating European energy prices and regional geopolitical tensions could spark short‑term volatility.

Fatih Kılıç – The current indicators reflect Turkey's mid‑2026 efforts toward economic stability. The positive NFP surprise underscores labor market resilience, while the modest dip in ISM hints at a potential slowdown in manufacturing. The Central Bank’s rate stance continues to anchor inflation expectations. In the short term, FX movements and trade balances will remain under close watch, especially given energy price uncertainties.