Oil Shock and Tariff Walls: The New Vise of Global Trade

The global economy is reeling from an energy crisis triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, while the resurgence of tariffs reignites trade wars, placing global markets under dual pressure.

The $100 Threshold: Energy Costs at a Breaking Point

Escalating conflicts in the Persian Gulf have directly threatened energy supply security, pushing crude oil prices to the psychological and economic breaking point of $100 per barrel. This shift represents a significant cost increase not only for energy importers but for all production overheads.

■Oil prices hitting $100 are intensifying global inflationary pressures.

■Instability in the Persian Gulf is raising risk premiums for energy transit routes.

■Energy-intensive sectors are expected to face a rapid surge in production costs.

Protectionism Redux and Supply Chain Fractures

Adding to the energy shock, the return of tariffs is a powerful signal that the era of unfettered free trade is receding. The rise of customs walls is further complicating supply chains that were already fragile.

■Tariffs are driving up intermediate goods costs, pushing final consumer prices higher.

■Trade barriers are forcing companies to urgently re-optimize their logistics routes.

■Protectionist policies are creating significant downside risks for global growth forecasts.

This spike in oil prices will directly drive up Jet A1 fuel costs in the aviation sector. While a contraction in airlines' operational margins is inevitable, I anticipate that these cost increases will be rapidly passed on to Air Freight pricing via fuel surcharges. Particularly for the air bridge supply of tech products, the combination of rising freight rates and new tariffs will significantly decelerate the velocity of the global supply chain.