AA Finance's PPK Expectation Survey: Will Policy Rate Remain Unchanged?

AA Finance's panel of 16 economists delivered a crystal‑clear forecast for the upcoming TCMB Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting scheduled for July 23.

Survey Respondents and Methodology

■16 domestic and international economists answered via AA Finance's News Flow System (HAS).

■Participants used median analysis combined with historical regression models to project the rate decision.

■The poll was conducted under double‑blind anonymity to ensure unbiased feedback.

Interest‑Rate Outlook: The Median Verdict

■The median expectation points to a %37 probability that the policy rate will stay unchanged.

■For year‑end, the median forecast drops slightly to %35, still indicating a flat rate.

■In the June PPK meeting, the rate was held steady at %37, mirroring the current median.

Market Participation and Liquidity Implications

■A flat‑rate outlook should dampen FX volatility and support steadier currency movements.

■Borsa Istanbul and credit markets may maintain liquidity flows under a steady‑rate regime.

■Bond and note investors will need to reprice yield spreads in light of a no‑change scenario.

Historical Context and Prior Decisions

■In June 2023, the TCMB kept the policy rate at %37, anchoring its stance within the inflation target framework.

■Over the past 12 months, the rate has been on the agenda four times, yet decisions have favored stability.

■ISM Manufacturing and Core CPI data have reinforced market expectations of a steady‑rate approach.

Fatih Kılıç – Chief Data Scientist, Economic Indicators: "The median from the survey suggests that the TCMB is easing inflationary pressure concerns, opting against a tightening cycle. Nonetheless, external shocks and global liquidity conditions could still trigger short‑term market turbulence even if rates remain unchanged. Investors should closely monitor risk premia and spread dynamics under a flat‑rate scenario."