Retail Sector in Real Decline: Shopping Mall Turnovers Trapped by Inflation

Shopping malls, the pulse of consumption in Turkey, are experiencing a real decline hidden behind nominal growth figures. The June 2026 data released by AYD and Akademetre Research reveals that the increase in retail volume has failed to keep pace with price hikes, signaling a severe strain on consumer behavior.

Purchasing Power Erosion and Real Losses

The rise in the square meter productivity index presents a misleading picture due to the inflationary environment. The data proves that nominal growth has translated into a real contraction:

■Square Meter Productivity Index: Increased by 20.9% nominally, reaching 5,249 points.

■Annual Inflation Rate: Recorded at 32.11% as of June 2026.

■Real Performance: Turnover growth lagged behind inflation, resulting in a real contraction of 8.5%.

The 'Belt-Tightening' Era in Consumer Psychology

According to economist Fatih Keresteci, the sluggish performance in June following the temporary surge in May is driven by two primary dynamics:

■Calendar Effect: The holiday period falling in May this year caused a shift in the volume that was observed in June last year.

■Structural Weakness: The decline in consumer purchasing power has shortened the spending cycle; heavy shopping in May led to forced austerity in June.

This real contraction in the retail sector may exert pressure on the rental income and valuation multiples of mall assets within REIT portfolios. The ability of retail-focused companies with high dividend yields to manage their operational expenses will be the critical determinant for the upcoming quarters. From a value investing perspective, it is imperative to select companies that can achieve real productivity growth rather than mere nominal increases.