Bab al‑Mandab Tanker Flow Collapses: Oil Prices Edge Toward $90

Bab al‑Mandab strait’s tanker traffic has plunged 69%, after Houthi rebels declared a maritime blockade, pushing Brent crude toward the $90 mark and rattling global energy markets.

Maritime Corridor Fracture: Houthi Blockade and Tanker Flows

■69% drop: 16 vessels on July 20 to 5 on July 21, with only 9 crossings so far today

■Hormuz Strait saw zero transits for the prior five days, yesterday a single tanker

■Brent crude hovering near $90 per barrel

■Maersk and Hapag Lloyd have launched a few Red Sea voyages, but further sailings may be delayed

Alternate Routing Costs: Africa Detour and Insurance Surge

■Increased reliance on Yanbu port concentrates export flows, lifting freight and war‑risk premiums

■Detouring north around Africa to reach the Mediterranean adds an estimated 30‑40% to transit time

■Insurance premiums expected to rise 15‑20%

■Container schedules could be postponed, with new departures slipping

Technical View: Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci Retracement

■BIST 100 staying above the Ichimoku cloud would signal bullish momentum

■The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns with Brent support around $85

■The 50‑day moving average shows a 2.3% upward slope

■A 12% volume spike could trigger buying pressure

The modest oil‑price rise reflects a short‑term supply shock, but the combined choke points at Bab al‑Mandab and Hormuz could push freight and insurance costs into double‑digit territory. This raises volatility for energy‑heavy portfolios and complicates short‑bias algos’ risk‑adjusted returns. Caner Yılmaz