Bank Deposits Surge to Record Levels: Implications for the BIST 100

The banking sector posted a 2.4% weekly increase in total deposits, reaching TL 1.8 trillion—a clear signal of accelerating liquidity flows.

Drivers Behind the Deposit Surge

■2.4% weekly rise, translating to a 12.7% year‑over‑year growth.

■1.8% real‑interest‑rate hike and a 0.6% stable FX rate spurred household savings.

■3.2% mortgage‑credit demand accelerated inter‑bank deposit transfers.

■0.9% inflation expectations nudged households to boost their deposits.

Technical Read‑outs on the BIST 100

■Ichimoku Cloud: price is testing the cloud’s upper boundary, confirming an uptrend.

■Fibonacci 0.618 retracement sits at 5,850 points, acting as strong support.

■200‑day EMA: index trading above 5,830, indicating long‑term bullish pressure.

■RSI (14): at 68, edging toward overbought yet momentum remains robust.

Market Participants’ Tactical Moves

■Portfolio managers are upping exposure to banking stocks by 3.5%, capturing the risk premium.

■Institutional investors treat the deposit uptick as a short‑term liquidity play, adopting T+0 execution strategies.

■FX market sees the Turkish lira gain 0.4%, pulling USD/TRY down by 30 pips.

■Swap markets reflect a +15 bps premium on the 5‑year TL bond.

Takeaways & Forward Outlook

■Deposit growth signals an expanding money supply, bolstering the BIST 100’s push toward the 5,900 level.

■The 13.5% policy rate set by the CBRT could make deposits even more attractive.

■Continued credit expansion and sector consolidation may keep banking profit margins in the 1.2‑1.5% range.

■Given external shock risks (geopolitics, energy prices), volatility is likely to hover around 8%.

Caner Yılmaz – Director of Technical & Quantitative Analysis, BIST 100: The faster‑than‑expected deposit rebound eases liquidity pressure and places banking equities on a technically positive canvas, supporting a short‑term rally in the BIST 100. Holding above the Fibonacci 0.618 level and a firm 200‑day EMA gives the index enough thrust to target the 5,950‑5,970 band. Nevertheless, external risks—especially currency swings—could trigger sharp pullbacks; setting stop‑losses near 5,800 is essential for prudent risk management.