US-Iran Tensions Cast Shadow on Base Metals Demand Outlook

Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran have fueled concerns over global economic growth, casting a shadow over the outlook for industrial commodities. Base metals retreated amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Historical Echoes of Escalation

■US sanctions threat on Iran previously triggered similar market volatility in 2023.

■Iran's Tehran Stock Exchange saw a 12% drop in the second half of last year.

■Copper prices on the LME hovered around 35,000 in late 2022; now falling below 3,600.

Inflation Hotspots Under Scrutiny

■Eurozone inflation cools to 7.5%, but direct impact on industrial demand remains muted.

■Chinese manufacturing output continues upward at 3.2% growth in 2024 despite regional tensions.

■Meanwhile, German construction material demand appears unaffected by the crisis so far.

Markets tend to treat such geopolitical risks as short-term noise, yet the structural demand for base metals is multi-layered. If uncertainty persists, strategic positioning among investors could shift accordingly.