BCA Research Warns: China Economy Faces Significant Slowdown in Next 6-9 Months

Summary

BCA Research warned that China's economic growth is likely to show a serious slowdown over the next 6‑9 months.

Key Findings

■Structural bottlenecks: Tightening real‑estate credit, stagnation in the construction sector and weak credit demand.

■Limited impact of fiscal stimulus: Government stimulus packages are being overwhelmed by deep structural imbalances.

■Three core risks: Persistent property crisis, weakening export demand and subdued borrowing appetite.

Global Implications

■A slowdown in China’s production and consumption will dampen global commodity and energy demand.

■Global growth projections are likely to be revised downward.

Conclusion

Despite Beijing’s aggressive fiscal stimulus, structural imbalances will not be fully offset, putting additional pressure on global markets.