How Nickel Prices Will Change in the Second Half of 2026

The nickel market is seeing a balanced trend with Bernstein raising its 2026 nickel price target to $17.357 per ton. The 2025 average target was $15.164, which has been increased. The company states that the market is more balanced than expected. The nickel market now shows only a small surplus. The consensus forecasts at the beginning of the year predicted a surplus of over 200,000 tons.

Changes in the Nickel Market

Endonezya has tightened its ore supply, increasing the cost base with higher HPM. This has added more uncertainty to the commercial framework. Cash costs in the 75th and 90th percentiles have increased to $17.870 and $18.650 per ton, respectively. These figures are well above the 2025 levels.

■There are reports that the Endonezya government may increase RKAB quotas in its July revision.

■Quotas may reach 300-350 million young metric tons.

■The initially announced figure was 260-270 million.

Developments on the Demand Side

Global electric vehicle sales have been analyzed. In the period up to April, they increased by only 0.5% year-on-year. Battery electric vehicles grew by 5.1%, but plug-in hybrid vehicles decreased by 8.5%. LFP does not use nickel. It continues to be the dominant battery chemistry in both electric vehicles and energy storage.

Expectations for how nickel prices will change in the second half of 2026 may vary depending on the balance of global demand and supply. Endonezya's tightening of ore supply and increase in cost base may affect nickel prices. However, the growth in global electric vehicle sales and energy storage demand may support nickel prices. This situation could contribute to maintaining the balance in the nickel market.