Will Gold Prices Rise in 2026?

Bernstein has raised its gold price outlook for the second half of 2026. The bank cited central bank demand and the Fed's reluctance to aggressively raise interest rates.

Recent Developments in Gold Prices

■$4.533 per ounce 2026 gold price target

■$4.375 per ounce target for the second half of the year

■The inverse relationship between real interest rates and gold was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2026.

Market Expectations

■The Fed is not expected to raise the Fed Funds rate in the next 12 months

■The bank noted that President Donald Trump's preference for low interest rates could lead the Fed to not raise rates at all or only raise them 1-2 times

## Central Bank Gold Reserves

■Bernstein cited the World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, which found that

■89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months

■A record 45% plan to add to their own reserves

> The markets are highly sensitive to this situation and the rise in gold prices may continue. However, more persistent inflation than expected could lead the Fed to more aggressive interest rate hikes.