Bernstein's Copper Price Forecast: Supply Tightness and Fed Policy

Bernstein has revised its copper price forecast to an average of $12.419 per metric ton for 2026. The firm expects prices to reach $11.750 per ton in the second half of the year. This new projection is slightly below the consensus estimate of $12.515.

Supply Tightness and Demand

The research firm predicts that copper prices will average $10.700 per ton by 2030. Supply gaps are expected to emerge towards the end of the decade. Recent copper price movements have been influenced by macroeconomic, geopolitical, and supply-demand factors.

■The prolonged conflict in the Middle East has driven energy prices up.

■Industrial sentiment has come under pressure.

■The strengthening of the US dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have had a negative impact on the commodity complex.

Physical Market Conditions

However, production guide cuts and ongoing inventory stocking in the US have tightened physical market conditions. These supply-side developments have supported copper prices.

Markets will remain sensitive to these conditions, especially considering the effects of supply tightness and Fed policy.