White Goods Sector Bleeds: Production Plunges 15% Amid Cost Crisis

Turkey's white goods sector, holding the title of Europe's number one and the world's second-largest manufacturer, faces recessionary winds in the first half of 2026. According to TÜRKBESD data, the contraction in domestic demand and global competitiveness difficulties combined to slow the sector's production line, while total sales being limited to 13,026,952 units with a 15% decline year-over-year signals that the industry's growth engines are stalling.

Red Light on the Production Line: Data Signals Recession

The decline recorded in the sector's six main product groups appears not as a temporary dip but as a harbinger of a structural slowdown. The picture in the first half of 2026 shows a negative divergence across all links, from production to exports:

■Domestic sales regressed by 7% compared to the same period last year.

■The ongoing negative trend in exports accelerated, recording a 19% contraction.

■Production volume fell by 15% under the weight of this weakness in external demand.

■Specifically in June, the situation worsened; domestic sales dropped by 15%, exports by 11%, and total sales settled at 2,033,470 units.

Global Bottleneck: Behind the 19% Export Slump

TÜRKBESD President Alper Şengül clearly articulates the economic realities beneath the data, warning that the sector's position in global markets is eroding. He notes that this sharp decline in exports stems not only from a lack of demand but also from the cost structure eroding competitiveness. Şengül delivers a stern message to policymakers, stating, "Our industry has long stated that the main reasons for the export contraction in global markets include the weakness in our competitiveness and the additional costs and burdens created by foreign trade policies."

Cost Shock: The Dual Burden of Steel and GEKAP

Among the biggest risk factors threatening corporate balance sheets are input cost controls and structural tax burdens. TÜRKBESD Vice President Mehmet Yavuz emphasizes that anti-dumping duties imposed on flat steel products directly raise production costs and make export pricing impossible. Meanwhile, the GEKAP (Recovery Contribution Share) issue raised by Fatih Özkadı stands out as another burden breaking the sector's back:

■Since 2020, GEKAP unit fees have increased by 15 to 17 times, far exceeding the approximately 7-fold rise in producer and consumer prices.

■The sector's annual GEKAP cost has reached approximately 3 billion TL.

■The total GEKAP amount collected from the sector in the 2020-2025 period was around 250 million USD.

In our algo-trading models, this decline in volume data for white goods stocks manifests as a short-term negative momentum signal. Specifically, the 19% erosion in export revenues is likely to suppress profitability ratios in BIST 100's locomotive stocks, consequently causing stock prices to test Fibonacci retracement levels. Investors should switch to defense mode in their portfolios by pivoting towards companies with the highest margin protection capability against cost inflation.