Bitcoin Below $60K Risk Intensifies as Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge in September

Bitcoin (BTC) faces renewed downward pressure as futures markets price in over a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, testing the critical $60,000 psychological support level. According to CME FedWatch data, market participants now assign a 50.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September 16 meeting, up from a 62.5% expectation of a pause just one month ago. Combined odds for a 25 or 50 bps hike have risen to 66%, reflecting growing concerns over persistent inflation. FOMC minutes revealed deep divisions among policymakers, with Chairman Kevin Warsh describing the debate as a 'family fight,' while nine of 18 officials in the dot plot signal at least one hike if inflation holds. Bitcoin dropped roughly 3% after the minutes but recovered amid a broader tech rally, buoyed by Apple’s $30 billion supply deal with Broadcom and optimism over AI chip demand. Technically, BTC broke below a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart, with resistance forming near $63,800–$64,000. A rejection from this zone could confirm further downside toward $59,300, though a decisive close above $64,000 may invalidate the bearish setup.

Fed Divisions Fuel Rate Hike Expectations

■CME FedWatch data shows a 50.8% chance of a 25 bps hike in September.

■One-month prior, 62.5% of traders expected a pause, now reduced to 34%.

■FOMC minutes highlighted internal splits, with Chairman Kevin Warsh citing a 'family fight' over inflation.

■Nine of 18 Fed officials in the dot plot support at least one rate hike if inflation persists.

Technical Breakdown Signals $59.3K Test

■Bitcoin broke below a rising wedge on the 4H chart, signaling bearish momentum.

■Resistance converges at $63,800–$64,000, aligning with the 200-4H EMA and former trendline.

■A rejection from this zone could target $59,300, while a close above $64,000 may spur recovery.

■Broader tech rebound, led by Apple-Broadcom deal, offers temporary risk-on support.

Markets are repricing aggressively amid Fed policy uncertainty and sticky inflation risks. Bitcoin’s technical breakdown underscores near-term volatility, urging investors to prepare for liquidity shifts ahead of the September meeting.