Bitcoin and PCE Inflation Drive Market Swing

Bitcoin and US equities caught a relief bounce as the South Korean semiconductor rout eased and the PCE inflation data aligned with expectations.

Semiconductor Sell‑Off Dims, Crypto Catches a Breath

■S&P 500 rose 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3%.

■Bitcoin (BTC) held steady around $64,500, barely changing from the previous day.

■The massive sell‑off in Korean chip stocks softened during US trading hours, shielding the crypto market.

Fed’s Preferred Gauge Shows First Monthly Dip Since 2020

■The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index posted a 3.7% year‑on‑year increase, down from 4.1% in May and marking the first month‑on‑month decline since 2020.

■According to the BEA, the rise in current‑dollar personal income was driven mainly by compensation, asset income, and government benefits.

■The 3.7% figure is the second‑highest reading since October 2024.

Bitwise’s Stability Forecast: Interest‑Rate News Fades

■Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, projects that future interest‑rate announcements will have a muted impact on BTC price performance.

■The CME Group FedWatch tool signals an expected 50bps rate increase over the next year.

■New Fed chair Kevin Warsh may echo former chair Alan Greenspan with a more measured rate‑change approach, potentially bolstering risk assets.

Markets are showing that the easing of Fed‑policy pressure and the slowdown in PCE inflation provide a more stable backdrop for crypto assets. Yet, inflation still runs near double the Fed’s 2% target, keeping long‑term risk alive. In this setting, Bitcoin’s short‑term moves will remain closely tied to macro data flows.