BHP's Copper Revolution: The New Engine of Profit

BHP Group has put its steel‑to‑copper pivot in hard numbers; copper is now the core driver of the miner's earnings.

Copper‑Powered Profit Surge

■Copper generated $18.19 billion EBITDA, overtaking $14.53 billion from iron ore.

■For the first full year, more than half of the group's total EBITDA came from copper.

■Underlying profit jumped 30% to $13.2 billion, beating consensus of $12.66 billion.

Capital Allocation: Betting on Copper Growth

■Medium‑term annual capital spend is slated at $11 billion, with over half earmarked for copper projects.

■By FY2035, BHP aims to boost copper output by ~40%, building on a steady 2 million metric ton base.

Demand Dynamics and Long‑Term Outlook

■BHP forecasts global copper demand rising from 34 million metric tons in 2026 to >50 million by 2050.

■Expansion of power grids and data‑center construction are the primary demand catalysts.

Balance‑Sheet Strength and Dividend Policy

■Net debt fell to $8.69 billion, tightening the balance sheet.

■FY2026 dividend was lifted to $1.72 per share, the highest in four years.

Risks and the Physical Test of Transformation

■Copper growth hinges on approvals and construction of projects such as Vicuña Stage 1 and a new Escondida concentrator.

■In the near term, earnings remain highly sensitive to copper prices, while iron ore continues to provide cash‑flow flexibility.

Captain Rıza Deniz: BHP’s copper‑centric shift signals a structural re‑allocation in the commodities market. While copper price volatility will directly affect profitability, the re‑direction of capital underscores a strategic bet on long‑term demand growth. Investors must weigh project approval uncertainties and construction risk to decide whether BHP represents a genuine growth story or a transient price‑cycle windfall.