Could Bab al-Mandeb Replace Hormuz? Iran's New Moves and Global Supply Chain Risks

Iran has instructed its Houthi allies in Yemen to prepare to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in response to U.S. threats against Iran's power infrastructure. According to Reuters, two senior Iranian officials and a regional source confirmed the request. Additionally, sources reported that the Houthis have pre-positioned missiles and drones capable of targeting ships in the Red Sea, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Yemen making the final decision on full closure. This development threatens to create a new critical choke point for global oil shipments after Hormuz. The strait saw an estimated 4.1 million barrels of petroleum products per day in 2024. In comparison, Hormuz handled about 20 million barrels daily in 2025. Bab al-Mandeb is part of the route for 7 million barrels of oil shipped to Yanbu, a Red Sea port. Iran's 'Axis of Resistance,' including the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Kata'ib Hezbollah, was referenced by Ali Akbar Velayati in an April X post, where he warned that the U.S. 'will soon realize the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.' The Houthis have not yet attacked vessels in Bab al-Mandeb but are known for targeting Israel during the Gaza War. Analysts from Politico and Al Jazeera predicted the group could launch similar operations in the strait, following Iran's threats against Kharg Island. Saudi Arabia recently restored full pumping capacity on the Yanbu pipeline, just days after attacks likely from Iranian missiles and drones. Beyond oil, Bab al-Mandeb, located on the route to Asia after the Suez Canal, handles about 12% of global trade.

As a global supply chain strategist, this development could immediately impact oil prices. However, the uncertainty over whether the Houthis will strike remains. Yet, Iran's warnings may increase the likelihood of U.S. action against Iran, potentially driving investment into energy-related assets like gold and crude oil.