Could Bab al-Mandeb Become the New Hormuz? Ship Turnarounds Surge in Red Sea

Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis are escalating threats to global oil supply by declaring a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. At least seven tankers have turned around in the Red Sea since Houthi warnings began, with three rerouting through the Suez Canal. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi called the strait 'Hormuz's new version' on July 22, raising fears of disrupting 4.1 million barrels/day of petroleum traffic in 2024. Iran's former advisor Ali Akbar Velayati warned the U.S. could 'halt global energy and trade flows with one move.' Markets are assessing potential impacts on Turkey's energy security. The Houthi campaign follows 120+ missile strikes against Israel since last year. The strait's strategic importance - handling 20% of Hormuz's 2025 traffic of 20 million barrels/day - is under scrutiny.

A new risk factor has emerged in global oil supply chains. This development could impact both energy prices and global trade flows, necessitating enhanced protection measures and exploration of alternative routes.