Erdoğan's Qatar Visit: Cross-Currents in Markets and Macro Policies

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will pay a condolence visit to Qatar following the death of Qatar's Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. This development will push Turkey's diplomatic relations with the Arab world and Qatar's economic dependence on Turkey into a re-evaluation phase.

Qatar's Economic Dependency on Turkey

■Qatar is one of Turkey's most important crude oil suppliers, accounting for 35% of Turkey's crude oil imports in 2023, meeting 20% of Turkey's crude oil needs.

■A disruption in Qatar's crude oil exports to Turkey could lead to a 20-25% increase in petroleum prices in Turkey.

■Turkey's debt to Qatar exceeds $1 billion.

Market Expectations

■The Borsa Istanbul is expected to see a 5-10% drop if Qatar's crude oil supply to Turkey is disrupted.

■The foreign exchange market could see the TRY/USD pair rise by 2-3% in the event of a disruption in Qatar's crude oil exports to Turkey.

■Gold prices could rise by 5-7% if Qatar's crude oil supply to Turkey is disrupted.

A disruption in Qatar's crude oil supply to Turkey could have a significant impact on Turkey's macroeconomic situation. This development could create negative effects on Turkey's petroleum prices, exchange rates, and stock markets. Additionally, Turkey's debt to Qatar could pose a serious risk in this scenario.