DEİK Forecasts Second Half: 3.6% Export Growth Amid Geopolitical Chessboard

Turkey’s export figures rose 3.6 % over the first half of the year, yet the first quarter recorded a negative growth; this signals a positive investor sentiment from the NATO Summit.

Half‑Year Export Momentum: 3.6 % Rise and Quarter‑Backed Dip

■Exports: 3.6 % increase, but first quarter negative.

■Core CPI: Expected sustained growth.

■NFP: Mixed employment data, sector‑specific variations.

Business Optimism: A Brighter Second Half

■DEİK Chair Nail Olpak: “We’re optimistic for the second half.”

■Structural reforms: Continuous implementation is vital.

■Bureaucracy: Streamlining and digital integration prioritized.

Financial Hurdles: High Rates and Funding Scarcity

■Interest rates: Remain elevated.

■Access to finance: Tightening and cost increases.

■Monetary policy: Inflation fight balanced against competitiveness.

Geopolitical Drivers: Energy, NATO, and the EU

■US‑Israel‑Iran conflict: Impacts on energy markets.

■NATO Summit: Boosted investor confidence.

■EU: Customs Union updates and free‑trade prospects.

Investment Magnetism: Digital, Green, and Defense Sectors

■Digital transformation: AI tailored to sector needs.

■Green economy: Critical infrastructure and energy projects.

■Defense industry: 100 billion‑dollar US trade target.

Strategic Position and Logistics Edge

■Intermodal transport: Safest land corridor on the Asia‑Europe route.

■Rail and port investments: Supply‑chain security.

■“Made in EU”: Priority in European supply chains.

Risk Analysis: Uncertainty and Trade Wars

■Energy prices: Expected decline post-conflict.

■US‑China tech cold war: Shifting global value chains.

■EU’s SDKM: Potential new trade barriers.

Conclusion: Outlook and Forecasts

■Exports: Anticipated continued growth in the second half.

■Investments: Rise in digital, green, and logistics arenas.

■Economic stability: Macro‑level sustainability emphasized.

For investors, DEİK’s outlook highlights that, even amid geopolitical uncertainties, Turkey’s strategic position and reform efforts sustain strong medium‑term growth potential.