Gold Price Outlook 2026: Major Banks Slash Forecasts Amid Fed Hike Bets

Global investment banks HSBC, Bank of America, and JPMorgan have downwardly revised their 2026 gold price forecasts, citing expectations of potential rate hikes by the Fed and the deflationary pressure of a strong dollar.

Fed Hike Bets and Dollar Dynamics

■HSBC and JPMorgan abandoned prior projections of $1,800-$2,000/oz for 2026, aligning with a more cautious outlook.

■A robust dollar, coupled with easing geopolitical tensions, has curbed safe-haven demand for gold.

■Bank of America cut its 2026 forecast to $1,700/oz, down from earlier estimates of $1,900/oz.

Investor Behavior and Risk Shifts

■Lower inflation and stable energy prices have reduced urgency for hedging via precious metals.

■Institutional investors are pivoting toward equities and credit instruments amid improved risk appetite.

Aylin Güneş: The recalibration reflects a market in transition, where the specter of tighter monetary policy overshadows traditional inflation hedges. Companies with aggressive buyback strategies and resilient balance sheets may outperform in this environment, offering a compelling alternative to commodity-heavy portfolios.