Eni Boosts 2026 Output Forecast and Expands Share Buyback to €3.4 Billion

Italian energy giant Eni raised its 2026 production outlook and lifted its share repurchase programme to €3.4 billion as it unveiled a strong Q2 performance.

2026 Production Outlook Jump

Eni now targets 5% full‑year hydrocarbon growth, up from the previous 3‑4% range, backed by an 11% YoY rise to 1.79 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 (price‑adjusted).

■5% annual growth target, surpassing the prior 3‑4% guidance.

■11% Q2 production increase, reaching 1.79 mboe/d excluding price effects.

■Growth driven by higher oil prices and disciplined cost management.

Financial Performance More Than Doubles

Adjusted EBIT surged over 100% to €5.38 billion, net profit climbed to €2.3 billion, and cash flow before working capital hit €4.47 billion, comfortably covering capex and shareholder returns.

■EBIT: €5.38 billion ( >100% YoY).

■Net Profit: €2.3 billion.

■Cash Flow (pre‑WC): €4.47 billion.

■Capex: €1.84 billion; Dividends + Buybacks: €1.35 billion.

Strategic Investments and Future Vision

Eni is expanding through new joint ventures and critical‑minerals projects; a partnership with Petronas (Searah JV), a global trading JV with Mercuria, and graphite‑lithium assets in Canada and Chile underline the shift.

■Searah JV with Petronas to develop major gas discoveries in the Kutei Basin (Indonesia‑Malaysia).

■Investment decisions approved for Baleine Phase 3, Greater PAJ (Angola) and Cronos (Cyprus).

■Critical minerals: graphite and lithium projects in Canada and Chile.

■Global commodities trading JV with Mercuria.

■Renewable arm Plenitude to be partially de‑consolidated, retaining a 65% stake.

Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy

The buyback programme was lifted from €2.8 billion to €3.4 billion, while the annual dividend remains at €1.10 per share; an extraordinary dividend could be considered if refining margins stay well above budget.

■Buyback: €3.4 billion (up from €2.8 billion).

■Dividend: €1.10 per share.

■Extraordinary Dividend: Possible if refining margins remain strong.

Defne Aydın – In the context of the ECB rate trajectory, Eurozone inflation dynamics and global trade tariff policies, Eni's robust Q2 results and strategic expansion send a positive signal to European energy markets. The firm’s solid cash flow, disciplined capex, and foray into critical minerals and renewables align with Europe’s energy transition and climate objectives, likely supporting a more favorable risk‑on bias among investors. Market participants should price in the elevated buyback and potential extra dividend while monitoring the sustainability of Eni’s operational and financial discipline.