Goldman Sachs Warns of Renewed Oil Price Upside as Hormuz Tensions Flare

When oil prices seemed like just another number scrolling on a screen, renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have thrust them back into the spotlight.\n\n## Fresh Tanker Assaults in the Strait and the Flow Reversal\n- Gulf exports slipping to roughly 11 million barrels a day, under 50% of pre‑war levels.\n- The United States re‑imposes a naval blockade on Iranian ports.\n- Tankers switching off transponders create "ghost cargoes," causing official data to understate real movement by about 10%.\n\n## Goldman Sachs’ Reversal of Expectations and Fresh Upside Signal\n- Goldman’s note says the earlier recovery has gone into reverse, renewing upside risk to crude.\n- The bank notes that other institutions, which had been racing to lift price targets in spring, are now quietly trimming them.\n- Peers such as JPMorgan have issued blunt verdicts on the oil‑economy link.\n\n## Production, Export Flows and the Emerging Imbalance\n- Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, boasting the largest tanker fleets and highest‑quality fields, carried the bulk of the early‑June rebound.\n- Other producers still lag February output by near 9 million barrels a day.\n- After the Washington‑Tehran deal, Gulf exports first rebounded to over 80% of pre‑war levels before collapsing again.\n\n## Ghost Shipments, Data Distortion and Market Psychology\n- Vessels that darken their AIS and re‑appear later mean the true flow is likely higher than reported.\n- Mid‑June estimates were later revised up by 1.1 million barrels a day (≈10%) once those hidden shipments surfaced.\n- This data fog feeds the renewed "fear premium" that traders attach to oil prices.\n\n> Gökberk Uçar: The Strait of Hormuz flare‑up reminds us that oil pricing is as much a logistics story as a macro‑economic one. A 50% cut in tanker flow directly lifts air‑freight costs, pressing upward pressure on aviation logistics and cargo rates. For air‑freight pricing models, this calls for a fresh look at risk premia and surcharge structures.