Hormuz Crisis: Brent Could Surpass $120, Turkish Economy Under Risk

A closure of the Hormuz Strait could impose heavy costs on global energy markets and Turkey's import-dependent economy. The potential for Brent crude to reach $120-150 per barrel threatens Turkey's current account deficit and inflation battle. While no official confirmation of Iran's closure exists, geopolitical tensions may push OPEC+ nations toward emergency production increases.

Hormuz Strait Closure Scenario and Oil Prices

■The Hormuz Strait is the sole maritime route for Gulf oil exports to international markets.

■Historical data shows Brent prices rising 10-20% during similar crises, potentially reaching $150.

■Iran's closure threats impact not only oil but also 25% of global liquefied natural gas trade.

Cost Burden on Turkish Economy

■Turkey meets most of its crude oil needs via imports, with each $10 increase widening the annual current deficit by $4-5 billion.

■A rise to $120 per barrel could add tens of billions in energy import costs annually.

■Energy price hikes directly fuel TL depreciation and import-driven inflation.

TCMB Inflation Battle and Policy Decisions

■The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is closely monitoring energy cost shocks.

■Sustained Brent prices above $100 may delay interest rate cuts by at least one meeting.

■Strategic reserves and alternative supply sources could mitigate crisis impacts.

Savaş Yıldırım: The Hormuz crisis is reshaping not just oil prices but global energy security dynamics. How will Turkey's tariff structures and gas supply guarantees distribute this burden? Markets will confront the cost of structural dependencies, demanding more than just monetary policy adjustments.