Potential Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Threatens Turkey’s Energy Costs and Current Account

The prospect of the Strait of Hormuz shutting down threatens to slam Turkey’s energy import bills and current‑account balance with a severe shock.

Geopolitical Pressure Point of the Strait

With Iran periodically wielding the passage as a bargaining chip, over 20% of global oil trade flows through this chokepoint, turning any escalation into an immediate market risk.

Direct Impact on Sensitive Corporations like TÜPRAŞ and THY

■TÜPRAŞ (BIST: TUPRS): Approximately 70% of its crude feedstock originates from the Middle East via the strait; a shutdown would spike input costs and strain refinery utilization.

■Turkish Airlines (THYAO): Highly fuel‑cost sensitive, its share price could swing sharply if Brent breaches the $90 threshold.

TL Depreciation and Inflationary Pressure

■Rising import costs could lift inflationary pressure by +1.5 percentage points, limiting the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) flexibility to cut rates.

■The current account gap may widen from 4.8% of GDP to 6.2% under a sustained supply shock.

Market Reaction and Futures Volatility

■Brent and WTI futures have shown 3‑5% price spikes each time new Hormuz closure threats emerge.

■An emergency OPEC+ Technical Committee meeting could materialise, aiming to stabilise prices through supply adjustments.

■Alternative Supply: Pipelines from Azerbaijan and Russia provide a modest buffer against short‑term disruptions.

■Risk Monitoring: A sustained breach of the $90 Brent level serves as a red flag for Turkey’s energy import expense.

The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is more than a geopolitical flashpoint; it is a macro‑economic shock that amplifies Turkey’s vulnerability to external energy dependence. The CBRT is likely to adopt a more cautious stance, curbing any near‑term rate‑cut optimism amid heightened inflation and exchange‑rate volatility. At the corporate level, TÜPRAŞ and THY will face amplified price sensitivity, prompting investors to reassess risk‑management frameworks.