Service Inflation Soars to 31.84% Annually, Monthly Dip Provides Brief Respite

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the Service Producer Price Index (H-ÜFE) rose by %31.84 annually in June, while recording a correction of %0.22 on a monthly basis, sending mixed signals regarding market expectations.

Cost Dynamics in the Service Sector

The double-digit trajectory of annual inflation in the service sector, which tracks economic activity, continues. According to the data, the increase over twelve-month averages was %35.03, while the change since December of the previous year was recorded at %24.07. Key data points from the sectoral breakdown include:

■Transportation and storage services saw the highest surge with an annual increase of %36.27.

■Professional, scientific, and technical services recorded an annual increase of %32.41, staying above the general average.

■Accommodation and food services, along with real estate services, saw annual increases of %28.24 and %28.47, respectively.

Monthly Divergence in Sectoral Pricings

While the annual rise persists, directional divergences between sectors in monthly changes are notable. While increases continued in transportation and accommodation, a regression was observed in the information and technology sectors:

■Transportation and storage maintained its rise with a monthly increase of %0.75.

■Accommodation and food services exhibited a strong rise of %4.33 on a monthly basis.

■Information and communication services saw a sharp decline of %6.41 monthly, while professional and technical services decreased by %5.64.

The monthly correction of %0.22 in H-ÜFE data may be perceived as a short-term pullback, but the annual momentum of %31.84 remains robust. Looking at Fibonacci levels, cost inflation does not appear to have broken its resistance in the main trend. In particular, the annual increase of %36.27 in transportation and storage confirms that the pressure of logistics costs on producer prices (like the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud) persists. This dataset will be perceived as a critical "leading indicator" for the upcoming period in central bank inflation reports.