July Confidence Index Divergence: Services Surge, Retail Slips, Construction Holds Steady

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) released July confidence index data, revealing a stark split among the services, retail, and construction sectors.

Robust Upswing in the Services Sector

■Confidence index rose 1.4% to 112 points.

■Over the past three months, employment conditions improved 0.5%, while demand outlook jumped 3.7%.

■Demand in the same period fell 0.2%, hinting at short‑term volatility.

Retail Trade’s Tentative Decline

■Confidence index slipped 1.6% to 111 points.

■Business volume‑sales outlook fell 3.8% over the last three months.

■Current inventory levels rose marginally by 0.1%.

Steady Growth in Construction

■Confidence index increased 0.6% to 83.5 points.

■Registered orders rose 3.9%.

■Expected workforce for the next three months is projected to drop 2.3%.

Aylin Güneş – This sectoral divergence signals that the services sector’s demand boost is a short‑term rally, retail faces consumer‑spending uncertainty, and construction remains buoyed by solid order flow. Portfolio managers should tilt toward dividend‑rich service and construction firms while bolstering liquidity buffers to mitigate retail‑related risks, adopting diversified strategies to navigate near‑term fluctuations.