IEA Warning: Global Natural Gas Market to See Reduced Demand

According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) '2026 Third Quarter Gas Market Report', the global natural gas market, which had been gradually loosening since the second half of last year, has been disrupted again due to the war that started in the Middle East at the end of February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The interruption in the strait, through which about 20% of global LNG supply passes, has caused sharp price fluctuations in international markets. Prices have soared in Asia and Europe. The report states that in March, spot natural gas prices reached the highest monthly averages seen since the 2022-2023 energy crisis. Accordingly, the benchmark price in Europe, TTF, increased by 32% to an average of $16 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. The spot LNG price in Asia also increased by 45% to $17.5/MBtu during the same period. Due to high spot prices and supply concerns, a 0.5% (approximately 20 billion cubic meters) decrease in global gas demand is expected this year. This would be the third annual decline in demand in this decade, following 2020 and 2022. The report also draws attention to the medium-term effects of the conflicts. It is estimated that the cumulative loss of LNG supply due to the damage to the world's largest LNG liquefaction plant, Ras Laffan in Qatar, could reach 140 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030.

The Blow to the Energy Corridor from the Hormuz Crisis
According to the IEA's report, the global natural gas market has been disrupted again due to the war that started in the Middle East at the end of February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has caused sharp price fluctuations in international markets. Prices have soared in Asia and Europe. The report states that in March, spot natural gas prices reached the highest monthly averages seen since the 2022-2023 energy crisis. The benchmark price in Europe, TTF, increased by 32% to an average of $16 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. The spot LNG price in Asia also increased by 45% to $17.5/MBtu during the same period. High spot prices and supply concerns are expected to lead to a 0.5% (approximately 20 billion cubic meters) decrease in global gas demand this year. This would be the third annual decline in demand in this decade, following 2020 and 2022. The report also draws attention to the medium-term effects of the conflicts. It is estimated that the cumulative loss of LNG supply due to the damage to the world's largest LNG liquefaction plant, Ras Laffan in Qatar, could reach 140 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030.