JPMorgan Turkey Forecasts: 2026 Growth at 3%, Inflation at 29%, USD/TRY at 51.4

JPMorgan's latest assessment report on Turkey's economy projects %3 growth for 2026, year-end inflation at %29, and a policy rate declining to 35%. The report forecasts 2027 growth to rise to %4.6, inflation to stabilize at %25, and the USD/TRY to reach 51.4 by year-end. A current account deficit of $48 billion and strong tourism revenues supporting the balance are highlighted, with foreign exchange volatility noted as lower than previous periods, necessitating cautious rate cuts.

JPMorgan's Turkey Economic Growth Projections

■2026: %3 growth expectation

■2027: %4.6 growth target

■Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Year-end at %2.8

Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook

■2026 year-end inflation: %29

■2027 year-end inflation: %25

■Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) policy rate: Declining to 35% by end-2026, then 30% by end-2027

■Low FX volatility suggests cautious monetary easing approach

Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics

■USD/TRY year-end forecast: 51.4

■2027 year-end USD/TRY forecast: 61.7

■Current account deficit: $48 billion by year-end

■Tourism revenues: Expected to support balance in July-October period

■Reserves: No significant pressure anticipated until Q4 2026

Dr. Aslıhan Demir Note: JPMorgan's forecasts indicate Turkey remains in a high-inflation trajectory despite gradual disinflation. The policy rate decline from 35% to 30% reflects the CBRT's struggle against inflationary pressures. However, the projected USD/TRY appreciation could increase external debt servicing costs. While tourism inflows provide short-term relief to the current account, structural external dependencies continue to pose long-term risks.