US Non-Farm Payrolls Shake Fed Expectations: Market Volatility Soars

The 1‑August non‑farm payroll data released in the United States reshaped expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy.

Fed’s Policy Trajectory

■199 thousand new unemployment claims fell short of market expectations, with a 0.55 probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike.

■In October, a 0.85 likelihood of a rate increase is expected, potentially raising the benchmark to 4.68%.

■Kevin Warsh’s remarks signal readiness for a rate hike at the 1 September meeting.

Rapid Market Reactions

■U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points to 4.68%, now at 4.69%.

■The dollar index held steady near 99, while gold traded at $4,264 per ounce.

■Brent crude climbed to $83.8, up 1.6%.

Energy and Gold Market Impacts

■Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, with regional unrest persisting.

■Rising energy prices are fuelling concerns over inflationary pressures.

Stock Market Performance and Corporate Earnings

■S&P 500 fell 0.18%, Nasdaq 0.06%, and Dow Jones 0.85%.

■Western Digital’s revenue grew 44%, profit surged 11‑fold, yet its shares dropped 13%.

■Sandisk’s earnings beat growth but its guidance fell 6.8% below expectations.

European and Asian Market Observations

■European stocks were positive except the UK; FTSE 100 slipped 0.19%, DAX rose 0.05%.

■Asian markets were mixed: Nikkei 225 down 0.4%, Hong Kong Hang Seng up 0.1%.

China Economic Data

■China’s trade surplus reached $112.5 billion, exports up 23.9%, imports down 27.5%.

■Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%.

Borsa Istanbul and Turkish Markets

■BIST 100 closed at 13,798.82, with resistance at 13,900–14,000 and support at 13,700–13,600.

■USD/TL moved from 47.6250 to 47.6990.

Markets react swiftly to these developments; the Fed’s potential for a rate hike earlier than expected dampens risk appetite, while rising energy prices intensify inflation concerns. These fluctuations underscore the continued critical role of macro data in steering market direction.