Koç University Inflation Forecast Drops to 45%: Consumer Sentiment Tightens

Turkey’s most prominent private research institution, Koç University, reports a 45 % forecast for the next twelve months in its household inflation expectations survey, down two points from 47 % the previous month.

Two‑Point Decline in 12‑Month Outlook

Conducted between 12‑18 June 2026, the survey shows a two‑point fall in the average inflation expectation for the next year, now at 45 %—a modest easing in consumer price anxiety.

Past‑12‑Month Sentiment Still Above Official Figures

The perceived inflation over the past twelve months slipped from 54 % to 53 %, yet remains 20 points above official statistics, underscoring a persistent gap between consumer perception and reported rates.

Market Implications: Bonds, Currency, and Equities

■Bonds: A modest 10‑15 bp downward pressure on yields may materialize.

■Currency: The Lira could see a 0.2 % strengthening as expectations ease.

■Equities: Particularly for KOBİ sectors, dampened consumer spending expectations may weigh on growth forecasts.

■BIST 100: The index could benefit from a 0.3 % uptick driven by the easing outlook.

Forward‑Looking Signals

■Inflation expectations could influence the Central Bank’s interest‑rate stance.

■Should consumer spending remain sensitive to price hikes, growth projections may need recalibration.

■Investors should brace for short‑term volatility in short‑dated bonds and currency pairs.

Koç University’s data signals a slight improvement in consumer price anxiety, yet a sizeable gap remains relative to official rates. This could prompt a reassessment of monetary policy, with short‑term market fluctuations expected and a need for further measures to stabilize inflation in the long run.