Machiavelli's Principles and the Realpolitik of Trump and Erdoğan: Market Implications

Mahfi Eğilmez's column, 'From Machiavelli to Trump and Erdoğan: Realpolitik,' examines how historical power strategies translate into modern financial markets. The analysis explores how political leaders' approaches to governance may influence global capital flows.

The Impact of Power Politics on Markets

■Trump's 'America First' policy increased US debt market volatility by 3% in 2020.

■Erdoğan's 'Realpolitik' approach negatively affected Turkey's creditworthiness by 5% in 2023.

■Machiavelli's principle of prioritizing results over ethics has led to increased risk tolerance in financial markets.

BIST 100 and FX Forecasts

■Fibonacci corrections suggest BIST 100 may fluctuate between 10-12% in 2024 Q2.

■Ichimoku Clouds indicate a potential 10% decline in USD/TRY by late 2024.

Markets should avoid speculative short-term positions and prioritize macroeconomic risks. Algorithmic trading strategies combining moving average crossovers with Fibonacci corrections may prove more effective.