Hormuz Crisis Pushes Oil Prices Over 2%

A strategic shock wave immobilized the Middle East’s energy artery, propelling global oil prices upward by more than 2% in an instant.

Bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz

New U.S.–Iran attacks triggered a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic fell to a five‑week low.

■6 vessels transited – the lowest in a five‑week span.

■5‑week low confirmed by Kpler data.

■New U.S.–Iran attacks triggered a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Surge in Price Momentum

Oil markets surged on a blend of risk premium and disruption concerns.

■Brent futures climbed to $77.68 (+2.2%).

■WTI rose to $73.00 (+2.23%).

■UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo described the move as a blend of risk premium and disruption risk.

Supply‑Chain Fracture Risks

Expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could mitigate future disruptions.

■Goldman Sachs projects 14 million bpd of bypass capacity by end‑2028.

■Adds 3.8 million bpd by end‑2027 and a cumulative 7.3 million bpd by end‑2028.

■Abu Dhabi National Oil Company set Murban price at $80.01, down from $101.48 a month earlier.

Market Participants’ Reactions

Shipping operators adopt a cautious stance while investors focus on the risk premium.

■ANZ analysts note a cautious stance by shipping operators.

■Declining inbound tanker numbers could pressure production.

■Donald Trump affirmed the Strait remains open for commercial traffic.

Markets are likely to uphold short‑term oil price gains driven by the Hormuz risk premium, yet the expanding pipeline network and evolving regional geopolitics could temper long‑term volatility. EM investors should reassess positions and recalibrate risk frameworks accordingly.