OPEC+ Announces 188,000 Barrel Output Increase Amid China-US Energy Policy Shifts

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day starting August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly rise in quotas. Since the war began, total output increases stand at around 940,000 barrels daily. Brent crude is now trading at $72 per barrel, down from April's $126 peak and near pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia shipped an average of 6.3 million barrels last week, restoring flows to nearly 90% of February's pre-war levels. The UAE, having exited OPEC+, exported 3.94 million barrels of crude and condensate in June, with Kpler data showing inventory drawdowns boosting exports. However, analysts warn of potential glut next year if production continues unchecked. China, the world's largest oil importer, has seen Middle East shipments drop to decade-low levels in April, despite cutting imports by 5 million barrels daily. Over 60 million barrels of stranded oil have been released post-war, with Saudi Arabia now China's top oil supplier. In 2025, China bought an average of 1.4 million barrels daily from Saudi Arabia, accounting for 14% of its total crude imports.

China's renewed oil purchases from Saudi Arabia could offset OPEC+'s supply increases, while the UAE's export surge may intensify competition between the US and China in energy markets.