RBC: Dollar Could Reach 104.0 by Year‑End Even Without Fed Rate Cuts

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Capital Markets’ foreign‑exchange strategist Daria Parkhomenko warned that the dollar can climb to 104.000 on the DXY by year‑end, regardless of whether the Fed raises or cuts rates.

The Engine Behind the Dollar’s Resilience

Parkhomenko stressed that the dollar’s high‑yield status remains intact and concerns over the Fed’s independence have eased, meaning the greenback will continue to outperform low‑yield currencies as long as no rate‑cut signal emerges.

Euro and Other Low‑Yield Currencies Under Pressure

■The euro is projected to fall to 1.11 USD.

■Current levels stand at 100.851 for the DXY and 1.1429 USD for the euro.

■Low‑yield currencies, especially the eurozone, will face sustained downside against the dollar.

■Market liquidity is being re‑routed to reinforce the dollar’s strong positioning.

RBC’s 2024 DXY and Euro Outlook

RBC expects the DXY to reach 104.000 by year‑end, with the euro sliding to 1.11 USD. This represents a sizable jump from today’s 100.851 DXY and 1.1429 euro rates.

Market Participants’ Reaction and Liquidity Flows

Parkhomenko noted that markets will follow the data, yet verbal cues can amplify the direction investors want to hear. Until the Fed’s policy stance clarifies, risk appetite will stay tilted away from low‑yield assets.

Caner Yılmaz – Director of Technical and Quantitative Analysis, BIST 100: A move toward the 104.0 DXY mark will lift volatility in BIST‑100 sectors correlated with foreign‑exchange rates, such as energy and commodities. Fibonacci retracement levels and Ichimoku clouds confirm the dollar’s bullish momentum remains robust. In this environment, traders should watch the 200‑day moving average breach as a key trigger for short‑term positioning.