Russian Refineries Hit Record Low Processing Volumes Amid Drone Strikes

Russia has seen its lowest refinery processing volumes in 21 years, reshaped by the impact of Ukrainian‑backed drone attacks.

A 21‑Year Record Low in Processing Volumes

Kpler’s latest data shows daily crude processing at Russian refineries has slipped to 3.80 million barrels, marking the lowest level in over two decades.

Drone Strikes Ripple Through Refinery Capacity

■25+ Russian refineries have been targeted by drone attacks since August 2025.

■Damaged units include FCCs, hydrocrackers, catalytic reformers, and hydrotreaters.

■Approximately 58% of capacity, roughly 1.5‑2.0 million barrels per day, is currently offline.

Kpler’s Q3 Outlook and Down‑Side Risks

■Kpler projects a modest recovery to 4.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

■Maintenance reductions are expected to slowly lift volumes, yet ongoing attacks pose a down‑side risk.

■42% of processing capacity (about 2.2 million barrels) remains operational.

Market and Investor Response

■International energy prices have risen 3‑5% to reflect the tightening of Russian refinery output.

■Crude futures have seen heightened volatility, with investors demanding a risk premium.

■Energy stocks and ETFs are adopting diversification strategies amid the uncertainty.

Rüzgar Ersoy – Director, Fintech & Banking Sector

The loss of refinery capacity tightens global oil supply, pushing short‑term price pressure higher. Yet, Kpler’s modest recovery forecast could signal a longer‑term supply‑demand balance correction. Banks and fintech platforms should embed such geopolitical risks into NIM and CAR analyses, reshaping credit collateral and liquidity frameworks. In particular, energy trading platforms must offer hedging instruments—options and futures—to help clients manage heightened volatility.