Russia Extends Gasoline Export Ban Through End‑2024: Market Implications

Russia, during a coordination meeting in Omsk, decided to extend the gasoline export ban until the end of 2024.

The Strategic Rationale Behind the Extension

Energy Minister Novak emphasized that restricting gasoline exports is essential to stabilize the domestic market and balance refinery stock levels.

Timeline for Diesel Export Resumption

Novak indicated that once domestic demand is met, diesel exports are slated to restart in the first quarter of 2025, allowing refineries to operate at full capacity.

Market and Refinery Production Impacts

■Gasoline supply tightens domestically, pushing prices up by an estimated 5‑8% in the short term.

■Diesel export revival could improve refinery profit margins by 3‑4% through year‑end.

■Potential dip in energy export revenues may reduce the budget surplus to $10‑12 billion.

■Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries keep supply security fragile.

Regional Fuel Rationing and Security Concerns

Temporary distribution limits are in place in major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, eroding consumer confidence and raising logistics costs by 2‑3%.

Kerem Tufan – Director of Commercial Loans and Central Bank Policies: Extending the gasoline export ban will push up domestic energy prices in the near term, but the planned restart of diesel exports should bolster refinery profitability. Nevertheless, the infrastructure risk from drone attacks may make banks more cautious in extending credit to the energy sector; managing liquidity for SMEs facing higher energy costs remains paramount.