Russia’s Trade Surplus Jumps 9.4% YoY to $59.1 B in Jan‑May 2026

Russia's trade surplus rose 9.4% year-on-year in the January‑May 2026 period to reach $59.1 billion.

Strong Growth in Total Trade Volume and Regional Shifts

■Total trade volume increased 8.3% to $295.7 billion

■Exports rose 8.5% to $177.4 billion, imports climbed 8.1% to $118.3 billion

■Trade with Asian countries grew 12.4%, lifting their share of Russia’s total trade to 74.8%

■Europe’s share remained at 18%, with trade volume up only 0.2%

■The combined share of North and South America held steady at 3.7%, while trade volume fell 5.6%

■Africa accounted for 3.4% of Russia’s trade, but trade volume with the continent declined 9.5%

Composition of Exports and Imports

■The leading export category is minerals and mineral products, accounting for 54.2% of total exports

■The top import category is machinery, equipment and other goods, representing 48.6% of total imports

Structural Shifts and Strategic Outlook

■Following Western sanctions, Russia’s trade share with Asia continues its upward trend

■The trade surplus expanded from $54 billion last year to $59.1 billion this year, a 9.4% annual increase

■Balanced growth in exports and imports can support capital flows and improve liquidity conditions for domestic banks

Rüzgar Ersoy notes that Russia’s expanding trade surplus reflects resilience in energy and commodity exports. By pivoting toward Asia to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, the country may bolster its net interest margin (NIM), as a larger surplus boosts reserves and strengthens banks’ liquidity positions. However, the continued reliance on mineral‑heavy exports carries long‑term value‑chain risks that could stress the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). Consequently, investment decisions regarding Russian assets should weigh the trade balance alongside structural diversification trends.