Soybean Surge: Crush Data Breaks Records, Prices Climb

Soybean prices climbed to $11.55, as crush data shattered expectations with a 15.69 % year‑over‑year increase.

Crushing Record: NOPA’s Surge

■NOPA data came in at 214.34 mbu, surpassing the forecast of 203.99 mbu.

■A 15.69 % rise from last year and 2.66 % higher than May.

■Bean oil stocks totaled 1.5 billion lbs, below the projected 1.653 billion lbs.

Price Momentum

■Cash Bean rose 8.75 c to $11.55.

■Soymeal and Soy Oil futures increased by $1.50 and 16 pts, respectively.

■Aug 26 and Sep 26 closing prices hit $12.01 and $11.91.

Sales Outlook: What to Expect?

■Export sales for the week of 7/9 projected at 100,000–500,000 MT.

■New crop business estimated between 0.9–1.7 MMT.

■Soymeal sales range 150,000–650,000 MT, bean oil net sales 10,000–16,000 MT.

Who’s Attracted?

■Commodity hedgers—producers and importers—see high liquidity.

■Investment funds and ETFs benefit from measurable volatility.

■Small‑scale farmers gain from rising market prices.

Forward View: Risks & Opportunities

■NOAA’s 7‑day QPF predicts dry conditions in the western corn belt.

■The eastern corn belt expects 0.5–1.5 inches of rainfall.

■Overall market sentiment is buoyed by high demand and stock declines.

Markets interpret the record crush data as a positive signal for long‑term price stability. However, the forthcoming export sales figures will be a critical turning point shaping short‑term price dynamics.