Soybean Futures Decline Amid Export Sales and Market Dynamics

Soybean futures weakened on Thursday, with contracts down 6 to 7.25 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price fell by a penny to $11.55. Meanwhile, soymeal futures rose $2.00-$4.00, while soy oil futures dropped 29-49 points.

Export Sales Data Highlights

■Old crop soybean sales in the week ending July 9 reached 188,274 MT, within analyst estimates of 100,000-500,000 MT. Though a three-week high, it marked a 30.74% decline from the same week in 2025.

■New crop sales hit 1.77 MMT, exceeding the 0.9-1.7 MMT forecast and setting a marketing year high. Total new crop business now stands at 4.598 MMT.

■Soybean meal export sales reached 228,235 MT, with 177,043 MT for the current marketing year, aligning with estimates of 150,000-650,000 MT.

■Bean oil bookings turned net negative at -122 MT, underperforming against estimates ranging from 10,000 MT cancellations to 16,000 MT sales.

Price Movements and Market Implications

■August 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.95, down 7.25 cents; September and November contracts followed at $11.85 and $11.95, respectively.

■New crop cash prices settled at $11.34, signaling potential supply-demand rebalancing.

■Soy oil's downturn introduces uncertainty for energy-linked investors amid broader commodity volatility.

Ege Kaan Note: These figures point to a structural pullback in global food supply chains. Brazil's robust coffee exports may intensify competition among agricultural commodities. The soybean decline underscores tightening liquidity in agribusiness, potentially influencing macroeconomic inflation trends. Investors should monitor spillover effects into related sectors like fertilizers and biofuels.