A 66-Year Rainfall Record in Agriculture: Relief in Food Inflation and a New Era for BIST Agribusiness Stocks

The rise in irrigation dam occupancy rates to 79.1% across Turkey, coupled with the highest cumulative rainfall data in 66 years, signals a decisive relief for macroeconomic balances, particularly food inflation. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the average rainfall of 674.6 millimeters recorded in the water year covering October 1, 2025 - June 30, 2026, points to historic peaks in agricultural yields.

Record Dam Occupancy and Regional Precipitation Surge

The fact that water year precipitation across the country exceeded both historical averages and last year's levels has completely eliminated drought risks for agricultural production.

■The highest increase was recorded in the Southeastern Anatolia Region with 47%.

■The Mediterranean Region reached the highest precipitation level of the last 66 years, Eastern Anatolia 38 years, Central Anatolia 15 years, Aegean 11 years, and the Black Sea Region the last 10 years.

■As of June, precipitation increased by 30% compared to seasonal normals and by 76% compared to the same period last year.

Yield Boom and Expected Retraction in Food Inflation

The healthy development observed in field crops, especially grains, solidifies food supply security while easing price pressures in the food category—one of the heaviest components of the macroeconomic inflation basket.

■High yield potential is preserved across all regions, from Marmara to Southeastern Anatolia.

■Localized drought concerns at the beginning of the season have been entirely neutralized by cumulative rainfall performance in recent months.

■The 2025-2026 agricultural season is poised to be recorded as one of the periods with the highest yield potential.

When integrating this dataset into our BIST 100 algo-trading parameters, we could see a sustained breakout above the medium-term Ichimoku cloud for stocks in food retail, flour/bakery products, fertilizers, and agricultural machinery (such as HEKTS, BAGFS, GUBRF, AEFES). Lower agricultural input costs and high yield expectations are bound to drag food inflation down, thereby supporting the CBRT's potential interest rate cut path. This scenario, while exerting downward pressure on bond yields, could trigger a new rally wave in the BIST 100 index above the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level—a strong support in the current trend. Volume-backed closes above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA 200) should be closely monitored, especially in agriculture-linked equities.