Turkey's August Data Storm: Inflation, Growth and OVP Targets Unveiled

August Data Storm

Turkey will release July inflation data on 3 August from TÜİK; CPI rose 0.99 % month‑on‑month, Yİ‑CPI 1.8 %, with a yearly inflation of 32.11 %. This is a key macro indicator closely watched by markets.

Inflation Report and OVP Hints

■TCMB Inflation Report due 13 August;

■Fatih Karahan forecasts year‑end inflation at 26 % and 15 % by the end of 2027;

■By 2028, inflation is expected to drop to 9 % and stabilize at the medium‑term target of 5 %.

Trade and Production Figures

■External trade: $25 billion exports in June, a 21.9 % annual increase, the highest on record;

■Industry production index to be announced 10 August, with a -2.9 % monthly drop in May‑June;

■Construction cost index will also be released that day.

Labor and Budget Statistics

■Employed workers count at 15 million 970 thousand 105 people, a 0.5 % rise from May‑June;

■Budget: June revenues ₺1 trillion 509.6 million, expenses ₺1 trillion 395.5 million; a surplus of ₺114.2 million, with a Jan‑Jun deficit of ₺942.835 billion;

■Housing and office sales reached 699 516 units; details to follow 11 August.

Mid‑Year and Future Expectations

■Labor market data will be released 19 August;

■Consumer confidence index on 21 August, at 89.8, the highest since May 2023;

■OVP preparations continue through August, with 2027‑2029 growth, inflation, employment, and current‑account targets to be announced in September.

Markets anticipate short‑term volatility from this data wave but see longer‑term clarity on OVP objectives. Investors should focus on inflation and interest‑rate expectations.