Turkey's Export Demand Index Declines: June 2024 Analysis

Turkey's export markets posted weaker-than-expected demand and resilience in June 2024.

Export Demand Index: Weak Signals

The Export Market Monitor released by the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) shows the Export Demand Index slipping to 98.9 in June. This represents a %1.1 monthly decline and a %0.9 drop year‑over‑year, keeping the index below its long‑term average.

Market Resilience Index: Flat Pull

The same report records the Market Resilience Index at 98.8, unchanged month‑on‑month but down %0.8 compared with the same month last year, also remaining beneath its long‑term mean.

Macro Context and Risk Drivers

Despite partial improvements in unemployment, consumer confidence, and inflation, deteriorations in job security and industrial production have pulled the demand index lower. Rising global geopolitical risks further undermine the overall resilience of export markets.

Strategic Takeaways and Market Outlook

■Export Demand Index continues to sit below its long‑term average.

■Market Resilience Index follows a similar downward trajectory.

■Escalating geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty across export destinations.

■In the upcoming quarter, exporters should prioritize risk management and market diversification.

"Markets are likely to price in these weak signals, with heightened volatility and currency movements expected in export‑sensitive sectors such as textiles, automotive, and machinery. From a technical standpoint, the BIST 100’s sector weights may face downward moving‑average crosses and Ichimoku cloud resistance, reinforcing a bearish bias. Fibonacci retracement suggests the current decline could be contained within the 38.2% correction zone, but a break could open the path to a broader pullback."