UBS Resets Eli Lilly Target to $1,425 as Oral GLP-1 Drug Data Muddles Bulls

UBS analyst Michael Yee raised Eli Lilly (LLY) stock price target to $1,425, citing strong sales momentum in Mounjaro and Zepbound, while prescription data for Foundayo, the company’s oral GLP-1 pill, raised concerns. In Q1 2026, Eli Lilly reported $19.8 billion in revenue (+56% YoY) and raised full-year guidance to $82-85 billion. Mounjaro generated $8.66 billion globally, and Zepbound saw an 80% surge in U.S. sales to $4.16 billion. However, Foundayo, launched in April to expand the GLP-1 market, underperformed expectations, creating a disconnect with analyst optimism.

Eli Lilly's Strong Q1 Momentum

■Revenue grew 56% to $19.8 billion, with full-year guidance raised to $82-85 billion.

■Mounjaro more than doubled worldwide, reaching $8.66 billion.

■Zepbound U.S. sales jumped 80% to $4.16 billion.

■Volume-driven growth offset price declines in both markets.

Oral GLP-1 Drug's Market Implications

■Foundayo, designed to capture non-injection patients, lagged in adoption.

■Mixed prescription data complicates bullish analyst outlooks.

■Kisunla Alzheimer’s treatment remains a long-term catalyst.

Kemal Tekin's Note: Eli Lilly’s growth in the GLP-1 race reflects broader pharmaceutical sector dynamics in emerging markets. However, Foundayo’s underperformance, paired with external risks like regulatory uncertainty in China, underscores a cautious outlook for EM investors. UBS’s target hinges on Q2 earnings validating demand trends amid macroeconomic headwinds.