UN Report: Iran War and Hormuz Shock Could Add 19 Million New Hungry by 2030

The Iran war has done more than push oil prices higher; the closure of the Hormuz strait could create 19 million new hunger cases by 2030.

Hormuz Crisis and Global Food Security

The UN State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 report models how food security in Africa and Asia will be shaken. In the most pessimistic scenario, prolonged damage to Persian Gulf infrastructure will leave 522 million people below the hunger line.

Regional Hunger Surge: Asia and Africa

■10 million additional hungry people in Asia

■8 million additional hungry people in Africa

■Latin America and the Caribbean make up the remaining difference with a modest increase

Fertilizer Shock and Price Volatility

Since most phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers are derived from natural gas, energy disruptions in the Middle East have driven global fertilizer prices up 30‑50%. Farmers either cut fertilizer use or switch to low‑input crops, shrinking overall food supply.

Long‑Term Humanitarian and Economic Implications

■As food prices rise, low‑income populations spend 40‑60% of their income on food, leading to a marked decline in diet quality.

■North America remains largely insulated thanks to higher purchasing power.

■Global hunger rates could rise from 7.8% in 2025 to 9.2% by 2030.

Gökberk Uçar – The Iran war is not just a geopolitical conflict; it is a breaking point in the global food supply chain. The surge in fertilizer prices will erode agricultural productivity especially in Asia and Africa, hampering long‑term economic growth. Governments and logistics firms must prioritize alternative fertilizer sources and more resilient supply routes to mitigate the impact.