Rainfall Revives Van Lake Basin Pastures, Boosting Farmers' Revenue Outlook

After a spell of heavy rains, the pastures of the Van Lake Basin have turned green again, markedly improving the profitability outlook for local producers.

Economic Impact of Rejuvenated Pastures

Bale Prices and Farmer Income

■Farmers allocate 60‑70% of the harvested hay to livestock feed, selling the remainder at 100‑150 TL per bale.

■The average bale price stands at 120 TL, translating into an additional 15 kTL annual income per farmer.

■The region hosts 3.5 million small ruminants and 150 k large cattle, directly benefiting from the high hay yield.

Year‑on‑Year Production Yield Comparison

Wheat and Barley Yield Trends

■Wheat yield fell from 196 kg/da in 2024 to 136 kg/da in 2025.

■Barley yield dropped from 220 kg/da in 2024 to 160 kg/da in 2025.

■For 2025, lucerne and korunga yields are projected to exceed 200 kg/da each.

■Rainfall decreased by 30‑40% between 2024‑2025; the first half of 2025 recorded only ≈100 mm of precipitation.

Water Resources and Agricultural Sustainability

Reservoir Levels and Future Outlook

■Zernek Reservoir has reached an unprecedented 85% capacity.

■Groundwater tables have improved significantly thanks to increased rainfall and snowmelt.

■Irrigated vegetable and fruit production is expected to deliver 10‑15% higher yields compared with 2024‑2025 averages.

■Controlled water releases ensure sustainable irrigation for the basin.

Market participants should view these positive agricultural signals from the Van Lake Basin as a catalyst for regional commodity pricing and rural consumption spending. The average 120 TL hay bale price could exert short‑term upward pressure on the rural consumer goods index. Moreover, the improvement in water resources lowers the risk profile of agricultural loans, potentially ushering additional liquidity into regional agri‑funds. These dynamics may ease Turkey’s overall food‑inflation pressures and strengthen the agribusiness‑manufacturing nexus.